Introduction:- Michael Rubin’s recent comparison of Eritrea to North Korea, coupled with his advocacy for sanctions and regime change, presents a dangerously flawed narrative. By oversimplifying Eritrea’s history and challenges, Rubin disregards the devastating consequences of foreign interventions.
Eritrea is not North Korea. It is a nation shaped by decades of colonial oppression, a grueling war for independence, and persistent external pressures. While the country faces severe internal challenges—such as a total absence of political space, economic stagnation, and lack of rights—meaningful change must come from within, led by Eritreans. Imposed regime changes have repeatedly proven catastrophic, as seen in Iraq, Libya, and Yemen. Eritrea’s history demands solutions rooted in sovereignty and self-determination, not external dictates.
Eritrea’s Distinct Context
1. A Legacy of Struggle
Eritrea achieved independence in 1993 after a 30-year armed liberation war against Ethiopian annexation. This protracted struggle deeply entrenched the principles of self-reliance, sovereignty, and self-determination in the national psyche.
2. Regional and Global Pressures
Strategically situated along the Red Sea, Eritrea is at the heart of geopolitical dynamics. Sanctions during the 2000s and continuous external pressure have compounded Eritrea’s efforts to develop. These conditions inform policies aimed at safeguarding its sovereignty, even when such policies result in internal strains.
Eritrea’s Internal Challenges
Eritrea’s emphasis on sovereignty has safeguarded its independence, but the country’s internal governance issues require urgent reform:
1. Absence of Political Space
Eritrea operates under the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ). Political pluralism has yet to take root in the country. No opposition or mechanisms for political participation currently exist. This lack of political pluralism has created unease among citizens and affected the country’s relations with the international community.
2. Economic Stagnation
The country’s economy has suffered significant stagnation. For a nation that has faced decades of existential threats, sanctions, and systematic isolation, this is not unexpected. Despite these challenges, Eritrea has achieved considerable progress in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and water and soil preservation. These achievements can serve as a foundation for sustainable development once the country’s priorities shift from safeguarding its sovereignty to pursuing economic recovery. However, the centralized economic model limits private sector opportunities, leading to youth unemployment and significant migration. Structural reforms and economic diversification are essential to address these systemic issues.
3. National Service
Initially crucial for nation-building, the indefinite duration of Eritrea’s national service has become a source of public frustration. Addressing this through clear term limits and alternative career paths could restore the program’s original intent without alienating the youth.
The Dangers of Imposed Change
Rubin’s proposals mirror failed policies in countries subjected to external interventions, leading to profound destruction and instability:
1. Iraq
The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq not only dismantled the country’s governance structures but also incited widespread sectarian violence, creating a volatile power vacuum. The lack of foresight in post-war planning resulted in weakened state institutions, rampant corruption, and a prolonged cycle of instability. The ripple effects include a fragmented nation, sectarian conflicts, and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS. Millions of Iraqis continue to endure displacement, poverty, and an uncertain future, underscoring the catastrophic outcomes of external interventions without sustainable frameworks for governance and reconciliation.
2. Libya
In 2011, NATO intervened in Libya under the pretext of protecting civilians during the Arab Spring uprising. The removal of Muammar Gaddafi, while intended to promote democracy, instead destabilized the nation profoundly. The resulting power vacuum created a breeding ground for militias, extremist groups, and human trafficking networks. Rival factions have since waged continuous warfare, fragmenting the country into competing territories controlled by local warlords. The centralized state system collapsed, leaving the population without access to stable governance, healthcare, or basic services. Libya’s chaos also reverberates regionally, fueling instability in neighboring countries and fostering transnational crime, further highlighting the perils of imposed regime change without a clear post-intervention strategy.
3. Yemen
Foreign-backed attempts to reshape Yemen’s political landscape ignited a catastrophic civil war. The conflict, initially sparked by internal disputes, escalated due to external involvement from regional and international powers vying for influence. The war has devastated Yemen’s economy, infrastructure, and social fabric, creating one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the modern era. Millions are on the brink of famine, displaced from their homes, and afflicted by widespread disease and poverty. Governance structures have collapsed, with large swathes of the country controlled by rival groups, leaving Yemen a fractured state unable to meet the basic needs of its people. This crisis underscores how external interference can exacerbate pre-existing tensions, plunging nations into unending turmoil.
These examples illustrate how imposed changes erode sovereignty, destroy governance, and leave ordinary citizens to suffer. Eritrea would face similar devastation if subjected to such measures.
Indigenous Reform as the Solution
The only sustainable path for Eritrea is through reforms led by its people, preserving sovereignty while addressing pressing challenges:
1. Economic Diversification
Fostering private sector growth, entrepreneurship, and investment can create jobs, reverse migration trends, and unlock Eritrea’s untapped potential in industries such as agriculture and energy.
2. Gradual Political Reform
Introducing mechanisms for public discourse, political participation, and civic engagement can build trust and improve governance. Gradual reforms can maintain stability while addressing systemic issues.
3. National Service Restructuring
Fixing term limits and creating alternative pathways for civilian careers can address grievances while maintaining the program’s developmental contributions.
4. Respect for Civil Liberties
Allowing independent media, guaranteeing freedom of expression, and enabling civic participation would empower Eritreans to contribute constructively to the country’s future and strengthen its global reputation. These reforms can create a more inclusive, prosperous Eritrea without compromising its sovereignty.
Constructive Engagement with Eritrea
The international community must reject coercive measures and instead focus on collaborative engagement: Dialogue: Respectful and constructive engagement can foster trust and cooperation. Support Development: Investments in education, infrastructure, and trade empower Eritrea’s citizens without undermining their sovereignty.
Reject Sanctions and Interventions: Punitive actions harm ordinary citizens and entrench government resistance, achieving the opposite of the intended outcomes. Constructive international engagement is key to promoting reform and progress.
Conclusion:- Eritrea’s history, marked by resilience and a commitment to sovereignty, demands solutions rooted in self-determination. The absence of political space, economic stagnation, and lack of rights must be addressed, but meaningful reform must come from within. Imposed change, as advocated by Rubin, risks plunging Eritrea into chaos, as seen in Iraq, Libya, and Yemen.
Eritreans alone must chart the course of their nation’s future, supported by international engagement that respects their sovereignty. By embracing internal reforms and rejecting imposed solutions, Eritrea can address its challenges, secure its independence, and move toward a stable and prosperous future for its people.
Co-Authors: Yonas Gebremariam, ሱሌማን ኣ. ሑሴን