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Thursday, November 14, 2024
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Ethiopian PM’s Red Sea Ambitions Stir Regional Tensions Amid Somalia Crisis

In a  parliamentary address, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared Ethiopia’s “unwavering interest” in accessing the Red Sea, a move that has sparked concerns and debates across the Horn of Africa. Although Abiy emphasized a peaceful approach, his remarks and recent diplomatic moves are being interpreted by some regional analysts as veiled threats toward neighboring countries.

Ethiopia’s landlocked status has long been seen as a strategic disadvantage, and Abiy reiterated that Ethiopia’s need for Red Sea access is a legitimate right, aligning with historical and legal precedents. “We do not seek it through war or force,” Abiy insisted, adding that this ambition is not only “true and logical” but a legacy that future Ethiopian generations would continue to pursue if necessary.

The Prime Minister specifically addressed Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, which grants Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s ports in exchange for Ethiopia’s informal recognition of Somaliland as a semi-autonomous region. This MoU has ignited diplomatic tensions with Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its sovereign territory. Somali officials have condemned the agreement as an infringement on Somalia’s sovereignty, leading to a breakdown in diplomatic relations, including Somalia’s recent expulsion of Ethiopia’s ambassador.

Abiy’s assertion that “Ethiopia deserves access to the Red Sea by any law” has been interpreted by some regional observers as a signal of Ethiopia’s firm stance on this matter, with some analysts cautioning that Ethiopia could exploit Somalia’s internal turmoil to its advantage. The instability in Somalia, which is battling political and militant challenges, has reportedly emboldened Ethiopia to advance its interests with Somaliland, while Somalia remains preoccupied with its own security issues.

Regional security analysts speculate that if Somalia continues to resist Ethiopia’s Red Sea access initiatives, Ethiopia might consider taking a harder stance. “The MoU with Somaliland and Ethiopia’s rhetoric indicate a broader regional agenda, one that could place Somalia in a difficult position,” remarked a Horn of Africa analyst. The sentiment is that Abiy may be leveraging Somalia’s vulnerabilities, especially as tensions escalate.

Adding to the complexity, Somalia has signed a military cooperation agreement with Egypt, resulting in Egyptian military presence and arms transfers to Somalia. This alignment with Egypt, traditionally seen as a rival to Ethiopia over Nile water disputes, has heightened the stakes. The recent summit in Asmara, which brought together Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea, signaled a new coalition aimed at fortifying Somalia’s territorial integrity. At the summit, the three countries reportedly agreed on measures to strengthen Somalia’s capacity to protect its borders, a clear message to Ethiopia regarding its Red Sea aspirations.

Despite Abiy’s reassurances of peace, Ethiopia’s actions have led Somalia and other regional players to question Ethiopia’s ultimate intentions. The Prime Minister’s statement that Ethiopia will “wait patiently” for Somalia to “rethink and prioritize” its national interests is seen as a diplomatic warning, especially as he implied that Ethiopia’s patience has limits.

Somalia’s decision to exclude Ethiopia from the AU-led forces set to replace the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) underscores the extent of the diplomatic fallout. The decision highlights Somalia’s view that Ethiopia’s interests now conflict directly with its sovereignty, leaving both countries in a potentially volatile standoff.

As Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions collide with Somalia’s sovereignty concerns, regional analysts fear the Horn of Africa may be on the brink of escalating tensions, with the possibility of military entanglements should diplomatic solutions falter.

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