When the Tigray Civil War erupted in 2020, Abiy Ahmed urgently turned to Eritrea for help, seeking rescue from the brink of defeat by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Eritrea responded and decisively saved him, earning his repeated gratitude. Yet, due to his own reckless actions, Abiy Ahmed once again finds himself in dire straits. This time, the very survival of his Party and government hangs in the balance. Unlike before, he stands isolated, with no allies willing to intervene as they did during the Tigray War. The mounting pressure has exposed his desperation: resorting to fabrications, empty threats, and turning against the nation of Eritrea that once secured his position. Most troubling, during his latest address to his rubber-stamp parliament, he brazenly denied reality, attempting to deceive the public with alternative facts.
Domestic Situation.
Abiy Ahmed appears to inhabit a fantasy version of Ethiopia, utterly disconnected from the hardships faced by ordinary citizens. He grossly underestimates the intelligence and resilience of Ethiopians, expecting them to blindly swallow the fabrications he peddles. In his recent speech to the rubber-stamp parliament, the prime minister shamelessly painted an unrealistically rosy picture of the crumbling Ethiopian economy and boasted about the supposed might of his beleaguered army.
Abiy Ahmed’s leadership is marked by economic mismanagement that has left Ethiopia in a financial crisis. Despite borrowing billions of dollars from both private and governmental lenders, there are few tangible results, leading lenders to consider legal action for repayment. The Ethiopian Birr has depreciated drastically, from 50 to 170 per US Dollar within a year, causing widespread hardship. Borrowed funds from the World Bank and IMF are used for arms purchases, worsening the prospects of securing further loans. Overall, Abiy’s government faces a bleak financial reality, which he attempts to obscure through propaganda.
Abiy Ahmed’s military faces a widespread insurgency, with challenges in regions including Oromo, Amhara, Beneshangul Gumuz, and possibly Tigray, as well as rising resistance in Afar. His forces are suffering losses and increased desertion. These military setbacks further illustrate the depth of his leadership crisis and his hopeless brinkmanship.
External Situation.
Abiy Ahmed seems to target his previous savior, Eritrea, because it refused to save him again. His saber-rattling against Eritrea has no bounds. The tantrum that he recently threw in his parliament can be summarized as follows:
- He does not know who signed the Eritrean independence.
- Eritrea refused to give him a port that he could own.
- If a war starts with Eritrea, the outcome is known, meaning Ethiopia will win.
- Eritrea is destabilizing Ethiopia and sabotaging its economy.
Who Decided on Eritrean Independence?
Abiy Ahmed assumed that defeated Ethiopia had the power to grant or deny independence to Eritrea. In fact, it would be easier for him to ask his former prisoner of war generals, now threatening to invade Eritrea, who decided the Independence of Eritrea. They would have a perfect answer for him. The Truth is that the total defeat of the Ethiopian occupying army in 1991, and the capture of 100,000 Ethiopian soldiers, by the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), laid the ground for the independence of Eritrea. Subsequently, in 1993, in a UN, EU, and African Union-monitored referendum, using their right for self-determination, 99.8% of the Eritrean people voted for independence. Therefore, Eritreans decided on Eritrean Independence, and no one had the right to deny it.
Abiy Ahmed’s Desire to Own Eritrean Port by Hook or Crook.
The international law of the sea regulates the relationship between landlocked countries and those countries that own the nearest ports. Therefore, the relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia cannot be outside the scope of the law. The law states:
Right of access to and from the sea and freedom of transit (Article 125)
- Land-locked States shall have the right to access to and from the sea for the purpose of exercising the rights provided for in this Convention, including those relating to the freedom of the high seas and the common heritage of mankind. To this end, landlocked States shall enjoy freedom of transit through the territory of transit States by all means of transport.
- The terms and modalities for exercising freedom of transit shall be agreed between the landlocked States and transit States concerned through bilateral, subregional, or regional agreements.
- Transit States, in the exercise of their full sovereignty over their territory, shall have the right to take all measures necessary to ensure that the rights and facilities provided for in this Part for land-locked States shall in no way infringe their legitimate interests.”
Abiy Ahmed’s Claim of Destabilization and Sabotage, and the threat of War.
Abiy Ahmed’s Tantrum about Eritrea’s role in destabilizing Ethiopia and sabotaging its economy is simply an effort to externalize his internal problems. Eritrea does not have the means or willingness to destabilize Ethiopia or sabotage its economy. In fact, it is the Abiy Ahmed government that is recruiting, hosting, and arming so-called Eritrean Opposition groups. As to the threat of war, Abiy Ahmed knows well that Eritreans are ready to defend their country. History shows that when attacked, Eritreans punch beyond their weight, and that remains the same for generations to come. If it was difficult to occupy an inch of Eritrean land in the past, it is impossible now.
Conclusion
Abiy Ahmed is in serious trouble, and he knows it well. By using an old divide and rule strategy, he destroyed the social fabric of Ethiopia, and it is getting worse from time to time. Hoping Ethiopians will support him, now he is trying to create an external enemy for his internal economic and political woes. The good thing is that the Ethiopian people know Eritrea has nothing to do with Ethiopian internal problems. In fact, they are grateful to Eritrea for saving Ethiopia from the brink of disintegration during the 2020-2022 civil war. Accordingly, Abiy Ahmed’s effort to antagonize Ethiopians and Eritreans fell on deaf Ears, and that is frustrating him. On the other hand, the pressure exerted by Armed groups in Amhara, Oromo, and possibly Tigray will continue, and in the months to come, Abiy Ahmed’s temper will hit the roof. Fortunately, such a tantrum will not bring change in the ground. As to Eritrea, it can defend itself from invasion, but it cannot stop madmen’s tantrums.
Eternal glory to our Martyrs and Victory to the Masses.
