After Eritrea expelled the Ethiopian occupying Army in 1991, two years before the official independence of Eritrea on May 24, 1993, Assab Port was declared a free port. The port was fully open to Ethiopia, and the latter paid a nominal port service fee that covered only the operational port expenses. Assab, located strategically on the Red Sea, is a critical asset for both Eritrea and Ethiopia because of its proximity to international shipping lanes, providing essential maritime access for landlocked Ethiopia. The port has historically facilitated trade and commerce in the region, underscoring its strategic and economic importance. Additionally, in line with the free port policy of the Eritrean provisional government, Ethiopia used the Assab Oil refinery (1991-1998). When the Eritrea-Ethiopia border war of May 1998 erupted, Ethiopia not only unilaterally decided to move its port use to Djibouti but also tried to occupy Assab by military force and failed miserably.
After Eritrea and Ethiopia signed the Algiers agreement on 12 December 2000, to end the border dispute through arbitration of the court of law, the president of Eritrea offered the use of the Assab port to address the then-raging humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia. When United Nations officials approached the Ethiopian government with the proposal to use the Assab Port,Ethiopia refused to accept it. When Ethiopia and Eritrea reconciled in 2018, Eritrea was ready to strengthen its relationship with Ethiopia. From the Port of Assab, the Eritrean President again declared that the time had come for Ethiopia and Eritrea to work together to recover the lost opportunities during the 20-year no-war and no peace period. However, like previous successive Ethiopian leaders who used conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia as a pretext to stay in power, Abiy Ahmed moved to sabotage the reconciliation process.
Abiy Ahmed’s demand for ownership of a Port and its corridor by Hook or Crook.
Instead of following the spirit of reconciliation and negotiating in good faith, Abiy Ahmed decided to throw a grenade at the peace process between the two countries. After leaking the information for a year, the prime minister finally officially claimed the Eritrean Sovereign territory of Assab as Ethiopian. Making the situation worse recently, in his speech to his rubber-stamp parliament, he went further and questioned the independence of Eritrea. For the weakest Ethiopian prime minister in history, who begged a smaller but strong Eritrea to save his government from being overthrown by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 2020-2022 civil war, to hear him bashing the Eritrean population size, Army, and governance system is quite a ridiculous act.
In a typical government, information is released in a highly controlled manner. However, in Ethiopia, the civil servants, the army generals, and even ex-government employees, and thousands of social media army activists work for the Prosperity Party’s Ethiopian Ministry of Information. For instance, a widely circulated tweet from a social media influencer and government supporter claimed that Eritrea’s historical right to Assab was up for negotiation, sparking a heated online debate. The tweet was then magnified through televised clips on state-run media, creating a perception that Ethiopia’s claim over the port was gaining international support. This incident not only illustrates the mechanics of the propaganda machine but also underscores its potential to shift public opinion through orchestrated false digital campaigns. Using his heavy investment in social media, the prime minister tried to hoodwink Eritrea into giving up its sovereign port to Ethiopia, which is a very childish strategy.
Abiy Ahmed miscalculated.
Although Eritrea’s population is smaller than Ethiopia’s, threats to Eritrean sovereignty and territorial integrity, irrespective of political differences, result in unity among Eritreans. For this reason, Abiy Ahmed’s extensive propaganda campaign was effectively countered by Eritrean activists. However, in the face of Abiy Ahmed’s 30,000 paid propaganda army, there is still a need to increase community forums and social media platforms to disseminate accurate information and create awareness about the situation. Organizing educational events and engaging with international media to present the Eritrean perspective can also be effective in countering the Prosperity Party’s disinformation campaign. Furthermore, by collaborating with international organizations, the diaspora can advocate for Eritrea’s sovereignty and policy rights, ensuring that its narrative reaches a broader audience. Such measures not only reinforce Eritrean unity but also empower the diaspora to have a tangible impact on their homeland’s future.
Did Abiy Ahmed Benefit or Hurt Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed’s Brinkmanship destroyed whatever trust was left between Eritrea and Ethiopia. He revived the expansionist ambition of Ethiopian rulers and supported it with a broad-based propaganda machine. Accordingly, at this time, it will be very difficult for Eritrea to buy whatever the Abiy Ahmed government says or offers. The Abiy government should have been patient in building trust by addressing the pending issues between the two countries that have not been fully resolved. Yet the hasty Abiy Ahmed gravitated to hollow brinkmanship and made it worse. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that Abiy Ahmed hurt Ethiopian Economic interests in using the Eritrean Assab port for commercial purposes.
The way forward.
Owing to the inexperienced and hasty actions of Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopia-Eritrea relationship has grown increasingly complex. The issue has become multidimensional and extends across the entire Horn region. Abiy Ahmed’s Brinkmanship against Eritrea, his aggressive pursuit of Tigray’s destruction, his involvement in the Sudanese conflict, the suffering of the Amhara and Oromo people, and the escalating instability in the Afar region have become a threat to the peace of the Horn of Africa region. Therefore, the primary focus should be on restoring regional peace rather than prioritizing negotiations on Ethiopian commercial access to the port of Assab. The port has historically been a free port and will continue to do so. However, the region’s current political situation far exceeds the significance of Assab. Ethiopia survived by using the Djibouti port for 27 years and can continue to survive without Assab.
Conclusion.
The Ethiopian and Eritrean People are destined to live side by side as neighbors. However, the expansionist ambitions of successive Ethiopian rulers have posed an existential threat to the peace of the region. Unless such expansionist ambition is reversed, Ethiopian leaders stop the brinkmanship against their neighbors, peaceful coexistence in the region will continue to be elusive. Therefore, the people of the region need to march together for lasting peace. There is no other way to cure the embattled Horn of Africa region.
Eternal Glory to Our Martyrs and victory to the Masses.
