The emerging strategic partnership between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia is reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, where regional tensions and competing ambitions are driving a complex security environment. The October 2024 tripartite summit in Asmara, hosted by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, brought together Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud to discuss critical issues affecting the region. The alliance’s formation comes at a time when Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, growing military deployments, and external interference are causing diplomatic tensions to escalate.
Ethiopia’s Ambitions and Eritrea’s Sovereignty Concerns
A major catalyst for the alliance is Ethiopia’s territorial ambitions in the Red Sea, particularly its ongoing assertions over the Assab and Massawa ports, which are sovereign Eritrean territories. Ethiopian elites have repeatedly claimed a right to these ports, viewing them as key to Ethiopia’s long-standing desire for a sea outlet. These ambitions have sparked tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and for Eritrea, safeguarding its sovereignty is critical. The tripartite alliance provides Eritrea with the diplomatic and military support necessary to counter these incursions and defend its national integrity.
In addition, Ethiopia’s push for influence in the breakaway region of Somaliland has exacerbated tensions. Ethiopia has established deeper ties with Somaliland, including the appointment of an ambassador to Hargeisa, signaling Ethiopia’s intention to strengthen its strategic position along the Red Sea. This move has raised concerns in Somalia and Egypt, both of which view it as a violation of Somali sovereignty and a threat to regional stability.
Historical and Strategic Ties Between Eritrea and Somalia
Eritrea’s involvement in the alliance is also rooted in its historical ties with Somalia. Eritrea sees itself as a natural ally of the Somali people, given their shared cultural and political history. For decades, Eritrea has supported Somalia’s sovereignty, and today, it plays a crucial role in strengthening Somalia’s state institutions. The tripartite alliance has emphasized the importance of helping Somalia defend its land and sea borders from both internal threats, such as terrorism, and external influences, particularly from Ethiopia.
The October 2024 summit in Asmara reaffirmed the commitment of the three nations to supporting the Somali National Federal Army (SNFA) in confronting terrorism and maintaining territorial integrity. This cooperation underscores Eritrea’s deep historical duty to safeguard Somalia’s independence, aligning it with Somalia’s own goals of rebuilding its security apparatus and defending its borders from foreign interventions.
Military Deployments and Escalating Tensions
One of the most contentious issues driving the new alliance is the recent deployment of Egyptian military forces in Somalia. As part of its broader regional strategy, Egypt has stationed up to 10,000 soldiers in Somalia under the framework of peacekeeping and stability efforts. This military presence has raised concerns in both Somaliland and Ethiopia, with Somaliland warning that the introduction of foreign military forces could threaten the fragile peace in the region.
On August 29, 2024, Somaliland’s government issued a press release condemning Egypt’s actions and urging the international community to oppose the deployment. Ethiopia, too, has expressed alarm over these developments, framing Egypt’s military presence in Somalia as a destabilizing force in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused Egypt of acting in ways that threaten regional stability, while simultaneously enhancing its diplomatic ties with Somaliland by upgrading its consular office in Hargeisa to an embassy-level presence.
The tripartite alliance between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia counters these criticisms by emphasizing that the Egyptian military presence is intended to bolster Somalia’s defenses and contribute to regional stability. This partnership has the potential to act as a counterbalance to Ethiopia’s growing influence, particularly its involvement in Somaliland and its broader maritime ambitions in the Red Sea.
Red Sea Security and Regional Stability
The security of the Red Sea emerged as a major focal point of the Asmara summit. Both Egypt and Eritrea have strategic coastlines along this vital global trade route, and they are deeply invested in maintaining stability in the region. Ethiopia’s efforts to secure maritime access through Somaliland and the Red Sea have triggered alarm among neighboring states, particularly Egypt, which sees itself as a guardian of the Suez Canal and Red Sea trade routes.
The alliance seeks to enhance maritime security and protect the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial chokepoint for global commerce. The three nations have agreed to coordinate military and diplomatic efforts to ensure that the Red Sea remains stable and free from external threats. Egypt’s military presence in Somalia, therefore, is framed not as an intervention, but as a vital component of regional security, protecting a critical waterway from destabilizing forces.
Tackling Regional Conflicts and Ethiopia’s Growing Influence
In addition to maritime security, the Asmara summit addressed the ongoing crises in Sudan and Somalia. Both conflicts have had significant regional repercussions, with the Sudan crisis in particular creating instability that threatens the entire Horn of Africa. The tripartite alliance is committed to addressing these challenges through diplomatic and military coordination, with Egypt offering to send peacekeeping forces to help stabilize the region.
Ethiopia’s influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly its actions in Somaliland and Sudan, has been a major concern for the alliance. Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its pursuit of external agreements, such as the controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, have raised fears of further regional destabilization. These moves threaten to upend the African Union’s principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, principles that the tripartite alliance seeks to uphold.
Navigating Geopolitical Complexities
The Eritrea-Egypt-Somalia alliance is a critical response to the growing geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly as Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions and military strategies threaten to destabilize the region. By strengthening military, diplomatic, and economic cooperation, the tripartite partnership seeks to secure the Red Sea, protect sovereignty, and ensure stability in a region facing increasing external interference.
The future of the Horn of Africa depends on the ability of regional powers to navigate these complexities through coordinated efforts and diplomatic dialogue. As Ethiopia continues its pursuit of Red Sea access and its relations with Somaliland deepen, the Eritrea-Egypt-Somalia alliance stands as a unified front against any unilateral moves that could upset the delicate balance of power in the region. The success of this partnership will ultimately hinge on the willingness of all actors, including Ethiopia, to prioritize regional stability over territorial ambitions and external pressures.