The escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia have raised significant concerns about the geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa. These developments carry serious ramifications, threatening to destabilize the broader region.
Why Are We Here?
In January of this year, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister and Somaliland’s leadership announced an agreement to build a port and establish a military base off the Somaliland coast. This move sent shockwaves across the Horn of Africa due to Ethiopia’s implied recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state, further complicating the region’s volatile geopolitics.
This decision has sparked widespread controversy, heightening tensions between Ethiopia and the Federal Republic of Somalia. Many Somalis view Ethiopia’s actions as a direct threat to Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. Ethiopia’s control over the Somaliland port and its lease of a military base exacerbate these fears, intensifying resentment rooted in a long history of conflict and division.
Lessons from the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Dispute
Ethiopia’s approach to regional disputes is not unprecedented. For over two decades, it refused to withdraw from sovereign Eritrean territories, including the disputed town of Badme. Despite the 2002 Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission’s ruling in favor of Eritrea, Ethiopia resisted compliance, effectively delaying border demarcation.
Eritrea, however, steadfastly demanded adherence to international rulings, rejecting Ethiopia’s calls for endless dialogue and negotiations. The late Eritrean Ambassador Girma Asmerom underscored this commitment, famously stating, “If Ethiopia pulls its army out of Eritrean territory, including the town of Badme, in the morning, discussions between the two countries will commence in the afternoon.”
This historical context sheds light on Ethiopia’s current maneuvers in Somalia, which bear a striking resemblance to its expansionist tendencies.
Ethiopia’s Expansionist Ambitions
Ethiopia’s aspirations for territorial expansion are not new. Historically, Ethiopian leaders sought to annex neighboring territories, including Eritrea and Somalia, citing dubious historical claims. Today, the Ethiopian government appears determined to secure sea access, leveraging coercive diplomacy and military pressure.
This strategy is further complicated by Ethiopia’s contrasting treatment of secessionist movements. While it crushed the Tigray region’s bid for autonomy through military force, it now supports Somaliland’s push for independence, undermining Somalia’s sovereignty.
Such actions risk plunging the Horn of Africa into a protracted and bloody conflict, especially as Somalia forges new military alliances with Egypt, Ethiopia’s historical rival.
The Somalia-Egypt Security Pact
In August 2024, Somalia and Egypt formalized a defense pact to enhance security cooperation. This agreement, signed during Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Cairo, includes Egyptian military support, weapon deliveries, and the potential deployment of 5,000 Egyptian troops to Somalia.
Experts suggest that this pact could challenge Ethiopia’s decades-long dominance over Somalia. According to Yusuf Hassan of the City University of Mogadishu, an Egyptian military presence would diminish Ethiopia’s ability to meddle in Somali affairs, bolstering Somalia’s sovereignty.
Ethiopia has expressed concerns about the pact, warning against external interference that could destabilize the region. However, Ethiopia’s historical involvement in Somalia, including its support for tribal enclaves and direct military interventions, complicates its credibility as a promoter of regional stability.
The Ogaden War and Somalia’s Historical Claims
The Ogaden War (1977–1978) exemplifies the deep-rooted conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia. Somalia, seeking to reclaim the Ogaden region inhabited by ethnic Somalis, launched an offensive that initially succeeded. However, Ethiopia, with substantial support from the Soviet Union, Cuba, and other allies, eventually repelled Somali forces.
The legacy of the Ogaden War continues to fuel Somali nationalism and aspirations for a “Greater Somalia,” symbolized by their flag’s five stars. However, these ambitions remain unrealized, hindered by historical divisions and external pressures.
Historical Background of Somaliland
Somaliland, a self-declared independent state, broke away from Somalia in 1991 following the collapse of the central government. While it operates as a de facto independent nation, no country has officially recognized its sovereignty.
The region’s distinct history as a former British protectorate adds complexity to its relationship with Somalia, which opposes its secession. Despite years of negotiations, Somaliland remains steadfast in its demand for full independence, while Somalia insists on reunification.
Egypt’s Historical Role in the Horn of Africa
Egypt has historically competed with Ethiopia for influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly in the Red Sea region. During the 1960s, Egypt sought to block Israel’s access to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait but abandoned this strategy after its defeat in the Six-Day War.
Today, Egypt’s involvement in Somalia reflects its broader strategy to counter Ethiopia’s regional ambitions, particularly concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). By strengthening ties with Somalia, Egypt seeks to undermine Ethiopia’s influence and protect its interests in the Nile River basin.
What Is the Solution?
There is no straightforward solution to the complex issues plaguing the Horn of Africa. However, Ethiopia must prioritize diplomacy over coercion. Its expansionist aspirations and support for Somaliland’s secession undermine regional stability and risk further escalation.
Similarly, Somalia should focus on strengthening its institutions and fostering regional cooperation to counter external interference. The involvement of external actors like Egypt, while potentially beneficial in the short term, risks entrenching proxy conflicts in an already volatile region.
Ultimately, peace in the Horn of Africa requires a commitment to mutual respect, dialogue, and regional integration, free from the shadow of historical grievances and external manipulation.