Introduction
This article builds on my previous analyses of Ethiopia’s renewed push for a seaport. In Part I, I examined the historical and geopolitical context, highlighting Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions. In Part II, I explored the domestic factors driving this quest.
In this third part, I turn to the role of regional powers—particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—in escalating tensions. The UAE’s deepening footprint in the Horn of Africa, from Somalia to Sudan, is not just about strategic partnerships; it reflects a broader effort to flex financial muscle, secure access to natural resources, and strengthen its influence over the region’s vital sea routes. These maneuvers have intensified uncertainty and shaped the crisis over Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions.
Ethiopia’s Maritime Aspirations: Diplomacy or Threats?
For over a year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made increasingly bold and provocative statements about securing a seaport. In an October 2023 parliamentary speech, he asserted that Ethiopia has a historical right to a coastline and declared that owning a port is an existential necessity for the country. He even hinted at military action if negotiations failed.
This alarming rhetoric triggered strong reactions from Ethiopia’s coastal neighbors—Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia—who swiftly rejected the notion that Ethiopia is entitled to their territory. However, they also indicated a willingness to negotiate a commercial deal, provided that their sovereignty remains respected.
Tensions escalated further when Ethiopia struck a controversial deal with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia. Mogadishu denounced the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty, adding fuel to an already volatile situation. Instead of unilateral moves and veiled threats, Ethiopia could have pursued a commercial port agreement through legal, diplomatic channels—an approach that would have reassured its neighbors and ensured regional stability.
In a recent speech to parliament, PM Abiy attempted to downplay fears of an invasion, stating that Ethiopia had no intention of militarily seizing Eritrean territory. While this was a positive step, his subsequent remarks still hinted at potential conflict if diplomacy fails. This raises an important question:
If Ethiopia is only seeking a commercial port deal, why resort to aggressive rhetoric?
Wouldn’t a commercial agreement serve Ethiopia’s interests without alarming its neighbors?
The UAE’s Role in Fueling Tensions
The UAE has become a key player in the Horn of Africa, using its financial power and strategic investments to expand its influence. While it presents itself as an economic partner, its real objectives appear broader—securing control over maritime trade routes, natural resources, and strategic coastal territories.
1. UAE’s Influence in Ethiopia
- The UAE has provided Ethiopia with billions in loans and funded key infrastructure projects, deepening its economic ties with Addis Ababa.
- DP World, a UAE-owned port operator, has aggressively pursued port deals in Somaliland and elsewhere in the region, cementing Abu Dhabi’s strategic foothold.
- The UAE’s Red Sea strategy appears to align with Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, raising concerns over tacit support for Addis Ababa’s territorial aspirations.
2. UAE’s Role in Sudan’s Civil War
Beyond Ethiopia, the UAE has played a decisive role in Sudan’s civil war, allegedly financing and arming warring factions. This prolonged conflict has left Sudan too weak to resist external pressures—including potential Ethiopian territorial claims.
A destabilized Sudan benefits both Ethiopia and the UAE:
- Ethiopia faces less resistance to any future territorial ambitions and negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
- The UAE expands its economic and military presence in the region without serious pushback.
3. Is the UAE Encouraging Ethiopia’s Red Sea Push?
While the UAE has not openly backed Ethiopia’s territorial ambitions, its actions suggest it profits from the instability Ethiopia is creating. By keeping the region divided, Abu Dhabi strengthens its grip over strategic maritime routes.
The question is: would Ethiopia make such aggressive territorial claims without external encouragement?
The evidence suggests that Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions are not solely a nationalistic endeavor or driven by domestic concerns—they are also influenced by external players with their own strategic goals.
Conclusion: Regional Unity Over External Manipulation
Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions are no longer just a regional issue—they are part of a larger geopolitical contest. External actors, particularly the UAE, are exploiting regional divisions to advance their own economic and security interests, heightening the risk of conflict.
If these trends continue, the Horn of Africa could face escalating disputes over sovereignty, borders, and resources. Ethiopia’s confrontational approach—combined with foreign interference—threatens to push the region into long-term instability.
What Is the Way Forward?
To prevent further crises, the Horn of Africa must prioritize:
- Diplomatic solutions over threats – Ethiopia should negotiate commercial port access rather than demanding ownership or issuing veiled threats.
- Regional cooperation over foreign interference – Neighboring states must strengthen collective security and regional cooperation to counteract external manipulation.
- Resisting foreign agendas – The region must assert its independence and prevent external actors from dictating its future.
The international community also has a role to play. As the collective guardian of international laws and norms, it has a responsibility to intervene when sovereignty is threatened. It should actively encourage regional states to engage in diplomacy rather than allowing disputes to escalate into conflict.
Will the Horn of Africa shape its own destiny, or will it continue to be a battleground for foreign powers?
The region’s stability, security, and prosperity depend on trust, cooperation, and self-determination. The time to act is now.
