The current Eritrean government and its predecessor, the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), have long opposed any secessionist tendencies in Ethiopia. Eritrea has consistently opposed any mechanism or policy that divides Ethiopians along language and ethnic lines. For example, one of the issues that sparked conflict between Eritrea and the then-Ethiopian government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), was the latter’s tendency to divide Ethiopians based on language and ethnicity. The Eritrean government’s reasoning for opposing the TPLF’s divide-and-rule policy was that it posed a danger not only to Ethiopia but also to all countries in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea’s firm and principled policy toward Ethiopia has endured through decades of turbulent relations between the two countries. Finally, this policy bore fruit when the TPLF attacked the Northern Command on November 4, 2020, and Ethiopia faced the danger of disintegration. The Eritrean army’s swift action provided the new Ethiopian government with respite and an opportunity to stabilize. Despite Eritrea’s goodwill towards Ethiopia, it has not been possible to establish a long-term relationship between the two countries. Here are some reasons why:
The “Ethiopia is for all, and neighboring countries are private” False Thinking
Recently, the Ethiopian Prime Minister complained that while neighboring countries benefit from Ethiopia, they do not want to share their resources with Ethiopia. Mr. Prime Minister, Eritrea has given everything to Ethiopia without receiving anything in return. Thousands of young Eritreans gave their lives to save you from being toppled by the TPLF. What did you give Eritrea in return? What did Eritrea ask of Ethiopia in return? Without shame, you are the one who officially threatened the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Eritrea. Did Eritrea ask for anything other than for you to respect the rule of law? You are the one treating neighboring countries as common while considering Ethiopia as private. Despite living in Ethiopia for generations, Eritreans are either yellow card holders or refugees. In 1998, Ethiopia confiscated their properties and inhumanely expelled them. In contrast, those Ethiopians who have been living in Eritrea for more than 40 years received automatic citizenship, and the newcomers have a yellow card. Now, their children in Europe, Israel, and the United States are attacking Eritrean festivals, and recently, at your invitation, one of them was seen organizing an anti-Eritrean conference in the heart of Addis Ababa. There are no Ethiopian refugees in Eritrea. Mr. Prime Minister, Eritreans cannot even use Ethiopian Airlines as paying customers. When Eritreans use Ethiopian Airlines, the staff and administration mistreat them, hike the prices, and steal their baggage. In any other world, a customer is treated as king. On the contrary, Ethiopian Airlines treats Eritreans as cash cows to be milked. It’s no wonder why Eritrea does not want to buy electricity from Ethiopia. Believe me, the line would be cut off the first day it starts operating. Thus, Eritrea’s prior investments in diplomatic relations with the TPLF and the President of Sudan have brought nothing but unimaginable loss. Durable, long-term benefits need to be built on incremental short-term gains, and it is time for Eritrea to adopt a transactional approach.
Ethiopia and Eritrea Have Different Political Cultures
Eritrea has an independent political culture. It does not want its politics to be dictated by any external party. Eritrea believes in self-reliance and does not accept aid. Accordingly, Western governments, which have a habit of dictating African politics, do not like independent Eritrea. They consider Eritrea a bad example for Africa. If other African countries were to take Eritrea as a role model, Western influence in Africa would be in jeopardy. On the other hand, Ethiopia, with its multiple free-flowing rivers, fertile land, and cheap labor, cannot afford to stay away from the IMF, World Bank debt trap, and other food donors that kill citizens’ productivity. Accordingly, as previously mentioned by several Ethiopian officials, Western countries put pressure on Ethiopia to cool its relationship with Eritrea. To get loans and aid, Ethiopia has no other choice but to comply with their demands. Thus, even if Ethiopia wants to, it cannot establish a long-term relationship with Eritrea. For that to happen, Eritrea would need to be in the Western sphere of influence, which is highly unlikely. In such a situation, it is time for Eritrea to think smart and adopt a transactional approach with Ethiopia.
United Arab Emirates’ Interest in the Horn of Africa
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a prosperous country with global ambitions. Multinational port operator DP World is the country’s international arm of influence. To advance the UAE’s interest in the Horn of Africa, DP World signed a contract with Djibouti in 2006 to develop its port. However, Djibouti later canceled the contract and expelled DP World, complaining that DP World intended to ensure Djibouti’s port would not be a competitor to Dubai. China replaced DP World in Djibouti. Angered by Djibouti’s actions, the UAE signed a short-term lease with Eritrea in 2015 to use the Assab port for its military operations in Yemen. Although the war in Yemen was the driving factor for the UAE to sign the lease with Eritrea, it was later revealed that the UAE had an interest in developing the Port of Assab. The UAE’s minister openly tweeted about his country’s interest in developing Assab. However, the Eritrean information minister dismissed the idea, saying Assab was not for sale. Since then, the UAE has withdrawn from Assab and established a strong relationship with the major port service user in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia. This relationship, among other things, would help the UAE manipulate port use in the Horn of Africa. Accordingly, the development of the Berbera port in Somalia and the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s unwise speech about his claim to the Red Sea are some of the consequences. Despite its negative consequences, the Ethiopian elite welcomes any political and economic interest that helps them weaken Eritrea. That is why Eritrea’s relationship with Ethiopia cannot be strategic and needs to be purely transactional.
Successive Ethiopian Rulers’ Ambition to Weaken Eritrea
In addition to conspiracies and open threats, Ethiopian elites believe Ethiopia should get everything while giving nothing in return to Eritrea. This kind of thinking is a continuation of the bankrupt policies of Haile Selassie, the Derg, and the TPLF against Eritrea. After the peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia was signed, Eritrea contributed significantly to peace in Ethiopia. Eritrea gave up thousands of opposition groups that it had nurtured over the last twenty years, dropped its precondition of Ethiopian withdrawal from sovereign Eritrean territory, and agreed to open its borders for trade. As part of the peace agreement, Ethiopian Airlines flies to Eritrea daily. It uses Eritrea’s airspace for its flights to the United States, Europe, and Middle Eastern countries, saving millions of dollars in fuel costs. Ethiopian ships are doing business in Eritrean ports. Above all, the Ethiopian government enjoyed the full military and diplomatic support of the Eritrean government during the TPLF-initiated civil war. What did Eritrea get from Ethiopia in return? Some may mention the lifting of sanctions, but those should never have been imposed in the first place. Don’t they know that it was Ethiopia’s doing? Although the truth is the reverse, Ethiopian elites complain about Eritrea benefiting from Ethiopia. If you ask them how, they would not utter a word. It is just long-held ignorance about the wealth of Eritrea. Eritrea does not need anything from Ethiopia, just to be left alone.
Conclusion
Although there is nothing wrong with having a policy that benefits both Ethiopia and Eritrea as neighbors, it is important not to be carried away by the hope that Eritrea’s long-term good deeds will lead to long-term benefits. In theory, it would be ideal and an excellent characteristic of visionary leadership. Unfortunately, Ethiopian elites have a different mindset. Even though they are the ones dependent on Eritrea, they think Eritrea is dependent on Ethiopia. When Eritrea saves them from disintegration, they claim Eritrea is working to destroy Ethiopia. When Eritrea hands over opposition groups to Ethiopia and Ethiopia fails to integrate them into civil life, they say Eritrea-trained opposition groups are creating havoc in Ethiopia. Their political culture is inconsistent and always changes in search of short-term benefits. That is why it is important for Eritrea’s relationship with Ethiopia to be transactional. If not, Ethiopians would not hesitate to take advantage of Eritrea.
Awet N’hafash and Eternal Glory to Our Martyrs.
