During a recent parliamentary address, Abiy Ahmed delivered statements that many have called misleading, sparking a pressing question: what drives this lie? This analysis contends that Abiy Ahmed’s growing desperation stems from mounting pressure on his administration, pushing him to manipulate public perception and cling to power through questionable elections. His controversial assertions about the Ethiopian federal army’s cooperation with Eritrea during the Tigray conflict have eroded his credibility and exposed cracks in his government. The following factors deepen this sense of urgency:
Fano Unity.
After fighting against the Abiy government, in a fragmented way, for two years, Fano leaders decided to create a united front. To abort such a move, Abiy Ahmed tried to create friction among Fano leaders and was able to lure some of them to his camp. However, in the end, Fano’s unity doubled the pressure on Abiy Ahmed’s rule, and that is making him desperate. The recent coordinated attacks by Fano led to the killing of several generals and colonels on the battlefield, and he understands where the security situation in the Amhara is heading. Now he is mobilizing his army from areas in Amhara and stationing them in very select areas. Such activity will enable him, at least during the election, to defend himself and secure the Amhara border with Tigray.
TPLF’s Resurrection and XMDO.
TPLF is cleaning its structures and is on its way to challenging the Abiy government. Surprisingly, when the TPLF Army ordered the Federal Army to leave Alamata, a town in southern Tigray, they left immediately. This shows the extent to which Abiy Ahmed’s Government fears the TPLF army. Emboldened by such gains, Abiy Ahmed thinks TPLF could attack South Wollo. Thus, Abiy found it necessary to build an army in North Wollo. TPLF’s resurrection is also facilitated by peace on the Tigray’s border with Eritrea. XMDO allows TPLF to mobilize its army on the Tigray-Eritrea border towards Southern and Western Tigray. Abiy Ahmed wanted TPLF and Eritrea to fight. However, XMDO turned his plan upside down and does not like that. That is why Abiy Ahmed accused Eritrea of supporting Ethiopian opposition groups. His lies also targeted the possible alliance between Fano and TPLF. By blaming TPLF for Human rights abuses in Amhara, he is trying to create friction between Fano and TPLF. Such a strategy suits his long-term plan to stay in power.
Upcoming Sham Election.
Abiy Ahmed plans to conduct a Sham Election during the Summer of 2026. If he is to claim to be an elected leader, he must conduct the election at any cost. Many people believe the current withdrawal of the federal army from areas in Amhara and Oromia is a plan to conduct war in Tigray. This writer has a different understanding of the situation. Abiy Ahmed wants to protect Wollo, Afar, and Shewa, where the sham election is going to be conducted. There is a precedent for such a plan. During the 2020 Tigray conflict, after Abiy declared victory, he withdrew some of his army from Tigray without notifying his then ally, Eritrea. The objective of the army withdrawal was to secure the then-election. TPLF grabbed the opportunity and conducted the Alula operation, capturing close to five thousand Abiy Ahmed’s soldiers. Accordingly, Abiy’s current mobilization of the army towards the Tigray Amhara border could be an effort to secure the upcoming sham election.
His involvement in the Sudan War.
Ahmed lacks the political and economic capital to refuse what the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government wants him to do in the Horn of Africa, specifically in the Sudan. His complete dependence on the UAE has forced him to get involved in the Sudan war. Such involvement is very risky and could invite another war to the Beneshangul Gumuz area of Ethiopia, where the GERD is located. Now, Abiy Ahmed is celebrating Ahmad Dagalo’s Army’s symbolic victory in the Blue Nile region of Sudan. What is clear is that Abiy Ahmed has become a party to the Sudan war, and this directly brings him into conflict with Sudan and Egypt. The outcome of such fateful involvement could be revealed in the months to come.
Conclusion.
In summary, this text argues that Abiy Ahmed’s desperation is the central driving force behind his recent actions and misleading statements. Intensified fighting in Amhara and Oromia, the possibility of a TPLF advance in North Wollo and Wolkaite, putting immense pressure on his government. His attempts at divide-and-rule and control through misinformation have been unsuccessful. As a result, his strategy now centers on orchestrating a sham election to maintain power, while continuing conflicts in Amhara and Oromia. His approach to Tigray and Eritrea is limited to containment, as he lacks the means or resolve to attack them directly.
Eternal Glory to our Martyrs and Victory to the Masses.
