Reflections on the Ankara Declaration: Hopes and Reservations for the Horn of Africa

The Ankara Declaration, signed on December 11, 2024, between Ethiopia and Somalia, represents a significant diplomatic breakthrough in the turbulent geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Mediated by Türkiye and applauded by global powers such as the UK and the US, the agreement underscores the sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity of both nations. At its core, it establishes Ethiopia’s access to Somalia’s ports through mutually agreed bilateral arrangements, marking a crucial step toward rebuilding historically strained relations and unlocking economic cooperation.

This agreement has been heralded as a rare positive development in a region too often beset by conflict, rivalry, and unresolved historical grievances. However, amid the optimism lies a degree of skepticism, particularly within Ethiopia and Eritrea, where historical precedent gives cause for caution. Past failures of regional agreements in the Horn of Africa serve as stark reminders of the challenges ahead.

Jawar Mohammed’s Assessment: Ethiopia’s Changing Port Strategy

Ethiopian political activist and critic Jawar Mohammed has emerged as a leading voice dissecting the Ankara Declaration’s deeper implications for Ethiopia. He highlights the shift in Ethiopia’s maritime access strategy, which has been a cornerstone of Ethiopian foreign policy since the country lost its coastline following Eritrea’s independence in 1993.

የአንካራውን ስምምነት መግለጫ ካነበብኩ በኋላ፣ በጉዳዩ ላይ ቀጥተኛ ሚና ከነበራቸው አካላት ተጨማሪ መረጃ በማሰባሰብ የሚከተልውን መረዳት ችያለሁ።

– በጋራ መግለጫው ላይ ባይገለጽም ኢትዮጲያ ከሶማሊላንድ ጋር የተፈራረመችውን ስምምነት… pic.twitter.com/ppemHmxfV6

— Jawar Mohammed (@Jawar_Mohammed) December 13, 2024

1. From Somaliland to Somalia: Ethiopia had previously negotiated an agreement with Somaliland, an autonomous region seeking international recognition. This earlier deal controversially sought Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence in exchange for Ethiopian ownership of a portion of Somaliland’s ports. However, that agreement alienated Somalia, which maintains its claims over Somaliland as part of its sovereign territory. Under the Ankara Declaration, Ethiopia abandoned its ambition for port ownership and instead pursued a more internationally acceptable approach: negotiating port access under commercial agreements such as leasing. Jawar notes that this conforms to global standards like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) but questions whether Ethiopia received equal value in this pivot.
2. Military Presence Adjustment: One of Somalia’s longstanding demands has been the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops operating in its territory. Ethiopian military presence, initially justified for countering terrorist groups like al-Shabaab, has been viewed by Mogadishu as a violation of its sovereignty. The Ankara Declaration signals Somalia’s softened stance, offering an opportunity for redefined military cooperation that aligns Ethiopia’s security interests with Somalia’s sovereignty concerns.
3. Strategic Cost-Benefit Analysis: Jawar’s critique is blunt: Ethiopia’s abandonment of the Somaliland deal in favor of the Ankara Declaration risks undermining the government’s diplomatic credibility. He terms this shift as a result of Ethiopia’s “wild ambition,” which sets lofty but poorly calculated goals. For Jawar, the current agreement ultimately places Ethiopia back at square one—dependent on external partners for maritime access without ownership or long-term guarantees.

The Global Perspective: Broad Diplomatic Endorsement

The Ankara Declaration has generated considerable support from international actors, who view the agreement as a stabilizing development in a historically volatile region.

1. The United Kingdom welcomed the agreement, praising its reaffirmation of Somalia’s territorial integrity and Türkiye’s role in guiding the talks. The UK emphasized its ongoing commitment to supporting regional stability and inclusive governance.
2. The United States likewise endorsed the declaration as a critical step forward. Recognizing Somalia’s sovereignty, the US also urged Ethiopia and Somalia to enhance their collaboration in counterterrorism efforts, particularly against al-Shabaab, which remains one of the most significant threats to peace in the Horn of Africa.

The international community’s reaction underscores three key elements of the agreement: a reduction in bilateral tensions, new economic pathways for cooperation, and a strengthened framework for counterterrorism—a shared interest for both Somalia and Ethiopia’s allies.

Historical Parallels and the Eritrean Perspective

For critics like Eritrean analyst Engineer. Suleiman A. Hussein, Ethiopia’s track record in honoring agreements raises significant concerns about the Ankara Declaration’s durability. Suleiman references notable instances in the Horn of Africa’s history where Ethiopia either ignored or dismantled key diplomatic commitments, fueling mistrust among its neighbors:

1. Federation Agreement (1952): After Eritrea’s federation with Ethiopia, the Ethiopian monarchy under Haile Selassie gradually eroded Eritrean autonomy, leading to annexation in 1962. This breach sparked a 30-year struggle for independence, which culminated in 1993.
2. Algiers Agreement (2000): Following the bloody Eritrea-Ethiopia War, the Algiers Agreement sought to resolve border disputes, with the International Boundary Commission ruling in favor of Eritrea. Ethiopia’s failure to honor this verdict prolonged hostilities and deepened mutual distrust.
3. Asmara Declaration (2018): Celebrated as a reconciliation between Eritrea and Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the agreement generated high hopes but faltered due to unimplemented provisions. Eritrean leaders argued that Ethiopia’s initial goodwill faded amid shifting domestic and regional calculations.

For Eritrea and others observing the Ankara Declaration, the question remains: will Ethiopia honor its commitments this time, or will history repeat itself? Suleiman warns that without accountability and mutual trust, the Horn risks repeating past mistakes.

Türkiye’s Mediating Role: A New Model of Engagement

Türkiye’s successful mediation highlights a growing trend of non-Western powers playing constructive roles in African geopolitics. Unlike former colonial powers, whose engagement is often colored by historical baggage, Türkiye’s presence has been welcomed as a relatively neutral and pragmatic force. Türkiye’s mediation approach emphasizes dialogue, respect for sovereignty, and mutual development—a style that has resonated in nations like Somalia, where Türkiye has deepened its political, economic, and infrastructural ties over the last decade.

For Somalia, engaging in the Ankara Declaration represents a mature step toward balancing sovereignty with economic pragmatism. Facilitating Ethiopia’s port access aligns with Somalia’s ambitions for growth while solidifying regional cooperation.

Challenges and Conditions for Success

While the Ankara Declaration presents an opportunity for stability and progress, its success is not guaranteed. Both nations must take deliberate steps to ensure the agreement’s longevity and avoid falling into historical patterns of conflict or mistrust.

1. Commitment to Implementation: Concrete actions—such as executing port agreements, clarifying troop withdrawals, and fostering joint economic initiatives—are critical. Without clear deliverables, the agreement risks fading into irrelevance.
2. Transparent Communication: Public skepticism, particularly within Ethiopia, highlights the need for leaders to articulate the practical benefits of the agreement. Effective communication can reduce political backlash and build trust.
3. Upholding Sovereignty: For Somalia, the deal’s success hinges on Ethiopia’s respect for its sovereignty. Any deviation, intentional or perceived, could unravel progress and reignite tensions.

Conclusion: Cautious Hope for the Horn of Africa

The Ankara Declaration embodies a rare window of opportunity for Ethiopia and Somalia to reset their relationship and lay the groundwork for long-term cooperation. At a time when the Horn of Africa faces pressing challenges—including economic hardships, terrorism, and political instability—the agreement’s potential benefits are significant.

However, the region’s history warns against unchecked optimism. Ethiopia and Somalia’s leaders must demonstrate political will, mutual respect, and a commitment to their promises. Only then can the Ankara Declaration transcend rhetoric and usher in an era of peace and prosperity.

In a region that has suffered from decades of mistrust and conflict, hope, tempered by the lessons of history, remains essential for forging a stable and cooperative future.