Recently through his local TV, Fana Broadcasting Service, Prime Minister Abiy Ahamed of Ethiopia delivered a scathing personal criticism of his former big brother and savior President Isaias Afeworki (PIA) of Eritrea. To understand the reason behind such an unjustifiable response it is important to dive into PIA’s recent Interview. In his interview, The Eritrean president raised three main issues responsible for the instability in Ethiopia: Ethnic federalism, The GERD, and the war against Fano. Now let’s discuss each of them.
Ethnic Based Federalism.
It has been clear that the president of Eritrea has opposed ethnic-based federalism in Ethiopia since its inception in the early 1990s. Federalism is a good governance system that promotes self-rule at the local level and a shared rule at the federal level among parties with different political ideologies. The problem with Ethiopian federalism is its cross-section with ethnicity. When a governance system is based on ethnicity it is often susceptible to extremism and conflict. That is what Ethiopian ethnic federalism proves to be. Regional States that are created based on ethnic lines vie for power. Currently, there is fierce competition for power between the Amhara’s, Oromos, and Tigrayan’s. The Tigray and Oromo ethnic groups harbor a secessionist tendency. Accordingly, when they come to power, they tend to take measures that help their ethnic group pave the way to creating their future independent State. It means through time the fragmentation of Ethiopia is unavoidable. The worst part of the story is possible fragmentation of Ethiopia will negatively affect all neighboring countries. Thus, PIA’s concern is justified, and he should continue to express it openly. Although the Tigray and Oromo Elites want to protect it for their future agendas Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism is a threat to Ethiopia’s continuity as a country and regional peace.
The GERD.
Many people do not understand the reasoning behind PIA’s criticism of the Ethiopian Great Renaissance Dam. As long as the Dam exists, the conflict among Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia persists and regional cooperation cannot be materialized. Such conflict creates proxy or God forbid confrontation between the three countries. The burning question is, is it worth it for Ethiopia to go to war that may turn the developments Ethiopia achieved so far upside down? Was there any other possibility for Ethiopia to guarantee electricity supply? Of course, many people would downplay the war scenario between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia. The writer of this article believes war due to GERD, between the three countries is not whether it is going to happen, it is a matter of when. That is what PIA is concerned about. GERD will continue to be a source of tension and instability in the Horn of Africa region and that is not good for the countries in the Region.
War On Fano.
Fano emerged as a force to reckon with when the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked the Northern Command on November 4, 2020, and planned to march to Addis Ababa to overthrow the newly formed Abiy government. When the Abiy government shifted course on the war and decided to reconcile with the TPLF, a decision was made to dismantle not only Fano but also the Amhara regional government special forces. Such action by the Abiy government was seen as a betrayal by the Amhara’s and a Fano opposition group emerged. The Fano armed groups are fighting the Federal forces all over the Amhara region. The unanswered question so far was why the Abiy government decided to crack down on Fano and Amhara Special Force until PIA hinted at the reason. According to PIA, the war on Fano was the making of Foreign Powers. That means the Abiy government was forced to act on Fano due to the pressure from foreign powers. The question is why Fano would be a target of foreign powers. There are three possible reasons:
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Link to Eritrea.
When the war on TPLF started, Eritrea reached an agreement with the federal government to train Fano. The Eritrean government believed in Fano’s potential to counter TPLF’s aggressive moves. On many occasions, the TPLF nearly overrun the Federal Forces and that was a concern to Eritrea. After the Pretoria agreement ended the war, the United States which did not want to see any party linked to Eritrea in Ethiopia, pressured Abiy Ahmed to crack down on Fano. Fano was also seen as an obstacle to the US’s major interest in bringing the TPLF and Abiy together and putting them on its side. Because the Abiy government had its fears emanated from Fano’s potential interest in the Federal seat of Addis Ababa, it acted against Fano quickly. That ill-fated decision has sparked a big fire in Ethiopia that is risking the collapse of the federal army.
2.Tension between the Oromo and Amhara.
Although the Amhara and Oromos cooperated to kick the TPLF from the federal power it held for 27 years, it did not take time for a power competition between them to emerge. Especially PM Abiy’s intention to turn the federal capital, Addis Ababa, into an Oromo Regional Government seat and potentially merge it into the Oromia state, in preparation for future Oromo country intensified the conflict between the two ethnic groups. The constant attack and expulsion of Amharas who resided in the Oromia region, blockage of Amharas from entering Addis Ababa, and the deliberate plan of the Abiy government to dismantle the Ethiopian Orthodox church aggravated the tension.
3.Abiy’s effort to appease the TPLF.
The Eritrean government believed it would not be long before PM Abiy turned on Eritrea. History has shown that Ethiopia’s governing elite’s lien on Eritrea until they believe they consolidated power. After the end of the war with the TPLF, it was clear that Eritrea’s concern was going to materialize. His Ambition to be seen as a great Ethiopian leader took PM Abiy to the Red Sea. In contravention of international law, he demanded ownership of a seaport and its corridor from his neighbors. He also wanted to establish a naval base in the Red Sea. To make that happen PM Abiy’s Machiavellian game convinced him to appease the TPLF and put it on his side. Such an idea was presented to the TPLF in their initial meeting in Seychelles, way before the Pretoria agreement was signed. During that time the Eritrean Army was actively supporting the Abiy government. However, that game made him his prisoner. Before agreeing to PM Abiy’s plan, the TPLF demanded the return of all territories administered by Tigray before the war. The Abiy government could not agree to the TPLF’s demand because if TPLF gets access to Sudan it may endanger the Federal government. Thus, Welkaite is “a bone on Abiy’s throat”. That is why instead of agreeing to TPLF’s preconditions for cooperation, the Abiy government decided to dismantle the TPLF from the inside.
Future Scenarios:
Based on the above analysis of the current political situation in Ethiopia and the wider region what are the possible future scenarios?
-The reconciliation between the TPLF and the Federal Government has hit a wall. PM Abiy chose to dismantle the TPLF from the inside and build a Tigray government loyal to him. Such a plan is gaining momentum. Yet the end might be what takes PM Abiy down from power. TPLF is likely to continue fighting for its survival and possibly find new allies. The fact that the latest US government will have no interest in Ethiopia’s internal politics unless PM Abiy gives in to TPLF’s demands there is no end to the conflict in Tigray.
-With the signing of the Ankara declaration, PM Abiy’s ambition to own a seaport and its corridor has ended. Now that the Red Sea Countries know the danger PM Abiy poses to the Red Sea, they are likely to be keen on protecting it. Consultations among Egypt, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, and possibly Sudan will continue. That means the possibility of PM Abiy getting to war to own a port is an unlikely scenario at least in the short term. Ethiopia will continue diversifying access to ports through all neighboring countries except Eritrea. The problem with Ethiopia and Eritrea is Ethiopia’s long-held strategy of denying Eritrea port revenue so that it remains economically weak. Ethiopia sees Eritrea as a regional rival. Thus, Eritrea will have to find other uses for its ports.
-Internal conflict in Ethiopia will continue. It is less likely that Fano and OLF would trust the Abiy government to sign a peace agreement. It is even less probable that the Abiy government would share any power with the Armed groups. Thus, unless one of the parties wins there is no way out. If the TPLF re-enters the war the Abiy government will be in imminent danger.
Conclusion.
Because most of the issues PIA raised in his recent interview were mentioned several times before, they were not the trigger point for PM Abiy’s scathing criticism against PIA. Thus, PIA mentioning the War against Fano as a foreign agenda may have been the last straw that broke PM Abiy’s patience. Due to his hasty and poorly calculated decisions, currently PM Abiy is facing immense internal and external pressure and the last thing he wanted to hear may have been criticism from his former older brother and Savior, Isaias Afeworki of Eritrea. What is sure is PIA will continue to raise these issues in his future interviews and PM Abiy will be forced to hear them. PM Abiy, his ministers, and paid YouTubers should be reminded that as long as they continue to disrespect their neighbors and disregard their sovereignty and territorial integrity, they will continue to hear such criticism from their neighbors. Treat your neighbors the way you would like to be treated.
Victory to the Masses and Eternal Glory to Our Martyrs.