The Oromo and Amhara youth movement that toppled the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-led Ethiopian government and propelled the Prosperity Party to power did not envision the current Ethiopia. Today, Ethiopia is engulfed in deadly wars in Amhara and Oromia. Both regions account for close to seventy percent of the Ethiopian population.
Previously unheard of in Ethiopia, it is now common to hear of a busload of civilians being kidnapped just a few miles away from the capital city of Addis Ababa for hefty ransom. The economy is in shambles. The price of imported items has doubled—accordingly, the purchasing power of Ethiopians with fixed incomes has plummeted by half. After the deadly 2020–2022 civil war, the Tigray region, which boasts a couple of hundred thousand-strong army, is out of the control of the federal government. All trends in Ethiopia indicate that the country is a failed state and is highly vulnerable to fragmentation.
The pressing question is: does the Prime Minister of Ethiopia believe the current Ethiopia needs to threaten its neighbors to get a seaport? The outright answer is no. But it seems the Prime Minister is thinking beyond the current Ethiopia. He may have reconciled with the likelihood of Ethiopian fragmentation, and he must be thinking about the future Oromia Republic. How did Ethiopia end up in the current precarious situation?
ETHNIC FEDERALISM
Unlike in other countries, Ethiopian federalism is based on ethnicity. When a governance system is based on ethnicity, it is often susceptible to extremism and conflict. Currently, there is fierce competition for power between the Amhara, Oromos, and Tigrayans. The Tigray and Oromo ethnic groups harbor secessionist tendencies. Accordingly, when they come to power, they tend to take measures that help their ethnic group pave the way to creating their future independent state. By instituting ethnic federalism, the TPLF-led government eroded the foundations of Ethiopian unity, and now the Oromo elite-led Prosperity Party is carrying the torch to the end.
If the current economic and security problems persist, Ethiopia will likely be fragmented. That means Oromia, with its capital Addis Ababa, will capture the federal security, financial, communication, and energy institutions currently in the hands of the weak federal government. With his aggressive pursuit of seaport ownership, it seems Abiy Ahmed is working hard to use federal resources to give the future Oromo Republic a seaport.
ABIY AHMED’S MISTEPS
To consolidate power, Abiy’s government’s missteps have aggravated the likelihood of the disintegration of Ethiopia. The constant attack and expulsion of Amharas who resided in the Oromia region and Addis Ababa, the blockage of Amharas from entering Addis Ababa, and the deliberate plan of the Abiy government to dismantle the Ethiopian Orthodox Church have all aggravated the tension. Historically, the Amhara were the advocates of Ethiopian unity. Abiy Ahmed’s war on the Amhara and the Ethiopian Orthodox Church is a clear indicator that he is going in a different direction.
Especially, PM Abiy’s intention to turn the federal capital, Addis Ababa, into an Oromo Regional Government seat and potentially merge it into the Oromia state, in preparation for a future Oromo country, has intensified the conflict between the two ethnic groups.
MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH SOMALILAND
When Abiy Ahmed spoke to his parliament about seaport ownership, his presentation intentionally focused on Eritrea. However, a few weeks later it became clear that he had already negotiated a deal with the breakaway Somaliland. Such an event was very significant because it reinforces the author’s claim that Abiy Ahmed’s objective has been to find a seaport that is more convenient for the future Oromia Republic than for the current Ethiopia.
The Prime Minister understands that snatching a port from Eritrea is nearly impossible, and his actions may even endanger the creation of his future Oromia Republic. Accordingly, while congesting the Ethiopian media airwaves with rhetoric about getting a port from Eritrea, the Prime Minister is likely to continue his hidden negotiations with Somaliland and possibly with Somalia.
CONCLUSION
Given the current situation in Ethiopia, it is highly likely that PM Abiy is looking beyond the current Ethiopia. He may be working hard to create a foundation for the upcoming Oromo Republic. His focus on the capital city of Addis Ababa and the signing of the now-frozen Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland are clear indicators that he is seeking seaport access for the future Oromia Republic.
This is not new in Ethiopia. The TPLF has done it, and now it is the Oromo governing elites, who have captured the Ethiopian state, taking their turn to use the opportunity. When reality catches up, like what the TPLF did, the current Oromo elites who are misgoverning Ethiopia will change their suits and call themselves the leaders of the Oromo Republic. In doing so, will they be able to avoid civil war? That is the million-dollar question.
Victory to the Masses and Eternal Glory to Our Martyrs.
Edited By: SETIT
