As Ethiopia sounds the alarm over the transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to a new peace support mission, the real question is whether this change could finally offer the Horn of Africa a shot at lasting peace. Ethiopia’s concerns are understandable, given its fraught history with Somalia and the complex regional dynamics at play, but there’s a strong case to be made that this transition could be exactly what the region needs.
Ethiopia’s apprehensions are deeply rooted in a history that cannot be ignored. In 2006, Ethiopian forces marched into Somalia, aiming to oust the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and install the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The invasion was intended to stabilize Somalia but ended up fueling a prolonged insurgency led by al-Shabaab, a militant group that capitalized on widespread resentment toward Ethiopia. The conflict not only deepened Somalia’s instability but also created ripple effects across the region, leading to humanitarian crises and sustained insecurity.
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that Ethiopia’s 2006 invasion of Somalia, despite its claims of helping to stabilize the country, was highly questionable—not just because the outcome contradicted those claims, but because the invasion itself violated international law. International law prohibits the invasion of sovereign countries, and the United Nations had imposed an arms embargo on Somalia, which Ethiopia’s actions flagrantly disregarded. The invasion was not merely a misguided attempt at regional stabilization; it was also motivated by Ethiopia’s internal political struggles. At the time, Ethiopia was reeling from the fallout of the 2005 elections, which were marred by allegations of fraud and subsequent political unrest. The invasion of Somalia served as a convenient diversion from these domestic issues, redirecting both local and international attention.
The subsequent establishment of AMISOM, later renamed ATMIS, was a direct response to the chaos that followed. While ATMIS has made some headway, it has also faced significant challenges. The mission’s inability to fully stabilize Somalia has been a point of contention, not just for Ethiopia but for the entire region. Now, as ATMIS prepares to step aside for a new peace support mission, Ethiopia fears that the region is being led into “uncharted waters.”
But perhaps it is precisely these uncharted waters that offer the most promise. The new mission, backed by both the African Union and the United Nations, is an opportunity to rethink strategies, build stronger alliances, and tackle the deep-seated issues that have plagued Somalia for decades. Fresh perspectives and innovative approaches could break the cycle of violence that has trapped the region in a seemingly endless loop of conflict.
However, it’s impossible to discuss the current crisis in Somalia without addressing Ethiopia’s recent moves to secure a sea outlet through agreements with a breakaway region of Somalia. This pursuit, driven by Ethiopia’s strategic interests, violates Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and has significantly exacerbated the complexity of the situation. Ethiopia’s actions have not only added to Somalia’s internal challenges but have also created new tensions across the Horn of Africa, complicating efforts to stabilize the region.
Critics might argue that Ethiopia’s concerns about the new mission are less about regional stability and more about safeguarding its own geopolitical ambitions. There’s truth in this observation. Ethiopia has long been a dominant player in the region, and the transition could signal a shift in the balance of power. But rather than resisting this change, Ethiopia could seize the moment to reinforce its role as a leader in peace-building. Embracing the transition could allow Ethiopia to shape the new mission in ways that serve both its interests and those of the wider region.
The new mission also opens the door to deeper diplomatic engagement. For too long, the approach to Somalia has been heavily militarized, with little emphasis on the political and social reconciliation necessary for sustainable peace. By focusing on dialogue and rebuilding trust among conflicting parties, the new mission could achieve what ATMIS struggled to do: create the conditions for lasting stability.
But for this to happen, Ethiopia and other regional players must be willing to set aside short-term gains and territorial ambitions in favor of a collective approach that prioritizes peace and stability. The international community, led by the AU and UN, is ready to support this effort. Still, the success of the mission depends heavily on the cooperation and goodwill of Somalia’s neighbors.
In the end, the transition from ATMIS might just be the fresh start the region needs. But it will only succeed if all parties, including Ethiopia, commit to a future where regional stability takes precedence over individual interests. The stakes are high, and the region’s leaders must recognize that the potential benefits of this transition could far outweigh the risks—if they are willing to embrace a more cooperative and peaceful future.