In a televised address to Ethiopian lawmakers released on October 13, 2023, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lectured his parliament about his country’s right to own a port and its corridor to the sea. The speech shocked many who believed the Horn of Africa Region was transitioning from a state of war, hunger, and destruction to one of peace and stability. Many sensed the dangerous nature of the speech as he claimed land belonging to sovereign neighboring countries. Since then, Ethiopian television, radio, and selected social media agents have been incessantly repeating the words of the Prime Minister. Additionally, Ethiopian government ministers have been posting provocative messages and pictures that undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of neighboring countries.
Parallels to the Ethiopian Federal government’s provocative propaganda activities against neighboring countries, including Eritrea, officials, and the so-called elite of the Tigray Region of Ethiopia, have also been sending shock waves regarding their misguided claims against Eritrea. Regardless of the barrage of unsubstantiated claims and, in some cases, outright insults, the Eritrean government responded with a statement of less than five lines. The important message in the statement was “Don’t be Provoked.” The message indicates that the objective of the Ethiopian Federal Government and the Tigrayan Elites is to provoke Eritreans. The question is, why do they need to provoke Eritreans? Here are some observations.
It is a Diversion tactic. The Ethiopian government is facing internal conflict, financial crunch, and political isolation. To the contrary, Eritrea has remained stable and is scoring diplomatic success. Historically, Ethiopian elites did not want to hear anything positive about Eritrea. Do you remember when the TPLF complained to the German Government because the German Orchestra participated in the 2015 Eritrean Independence celebration held in Asmara? That was a simple but very important incident that showed Ethiopian rulers’ bad intentions towards Eritrea. Ethiopian rulers always see Eritrea as a regional competitor, and they will do anything that will make Eritrea falter. Currently, the Ethiopian Federal Government is trying to show to the outside world that the whole region, including Eritrea, is in a quagmire and Ethiopia is no different. The Ethiopian government does not have any interest in using the Assab port according to international norms. It simply will continue putting claims on the Red Sea and provoking Eritreans until it thinks the right time has come to invade Eritrea. Till then, it is only propaganda. God knows when the right time for the Ethiopian government to invade Eritrea will be and what happens in between.
It is an Effort to Create Unity. Successive Ethiopian governments have been using Eritrea as a scapegoat for their repetitive colossal mistakes. After dismantling the United Nations-forced Federation of Eritrea with Ethiopia on September 11, 1952, Haile Selassie tried to label the Eritrean Liberation Fighters as Muslims opposing Christianity. Similarly, Mengistu Hailemariam called them Arab mercenaries. The Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), created and supported by the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), labeled Eritrea as a terrorist state and conspired with its Western handlers to impose successive sanctions on Eritrea. Now, the Abiy Ahmed government, saved from complete demise by the TPLF, fell into that trap and introduced the agenda of owning a port and its corridor to the sea to repair the fractured Ethiopian unity. Fortunately, the attempt to turn Ethiopians against Eritrea failed miserably because Ethiopians have witnessed the good intentions and neighborliness of the Eritrean people towards Ethiopia. To the ordinary Ethiopian, Eritrea and Eritreans are friends in need of Ethiopia, and such a claim has been confirmed by none other than Abiy Ahmed himself not long ago.
It is a Grief Coping Mechanism. Currently, the Tigrayan officials and Elites are in grief mode. Grief has five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. What the Tigrayans expected was completely different from what they had gotten. They planned to return to power in Addis Ababa and overthrow the Eritrean Government in Asmara. When the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front’s (TPLF) ragtag army was severely beaten, defeated, and its commanders traveled to South Africa to sign the Pretoria Surrender Agreement, they were in a denial stage. Then the anger came. They recruited diaspora Tigrayan avengers and started attacking peaceful Eritrean diaspora women and children. The level and intensity of anger were in the open for everyone to see. They made Eritrea responsible for their downfall and were ready to avenge anything that was Eritrean. Now they are in the bargaining and depression stages. The Tigray regional interim government is talking to the Federal government. They are bargaining on money, territories, and the status of the TPLF as a political party. As a sign of depression, many Tigrayan youth are voting with their feet to other parts of Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia. Obviously, acceptance of reality will follow. Until then, we will continue to hear constant outbursts against Eritrea and Eritreans.
It is an Attention-Seeking Mechanism. In the time of social media, there are important concepts called viral marketing and buzz marketing. These concepts are effective in attracting customer attention and thereby increasing sales. Accordingly, Ethiopian elites will continue provoking Eritreans as an attention-seeking mechanism. You will never see any meeting in Tigray or Ethiopia at large where the name Eritrea would not be mentioned. When they mention Eritrea, a debate ensues automatically, giving them the attention they need. Again, until they find other catchphrases, they will continue to use ‘Red Sea,’ Tigray Tigrinie, Agazian, Eritrean nationalism, Eritrean occupation of Tigray Territories, etc., non-stop. Repeating their 2002 cardinal mistake, except for a few courageous individuals, they will not mention the Algiers Agreement and the Ethiopia and Eritrea boundary decision. Because in their minds, they are preparing for another round of war against Eritrea. As the TPLF Patriarch Sebhat Naga recently put it, the Pretoria Peace Agreement is a tactic to buy time to prepare for another war. He clearly indicated that the next impending war to overthrow the Abiy Ahmed Government from power would be a lot easier than TPLF’s previous failed attempt because Sebhat Naga thinks Abiy has lost critical support from the Amharas and Eritrea. On another observation, former Ethiopian Defense Minister, Siye Abraha, currently exiled in the United States, gave unsolicited advice to Abiy Ahmed that if he was going to attack Eritrea, he should do it through Badme because attacking through Assab would be considered aggression. Do you remember how the TPLF’s invasion of Eritrea started and ended in 1998? It is confirmation that Siye and his TPLF colleagues used Badme as a pretext to occupy Assab. Fortunately, they were roasted by the Eritrean Army in the Assab Front and forced to sign the Algiers Agreement.
Conclusion
. All Eritreans need to understand that neither the provocative activities of the Ethiopian Federal Government nor the outbursts of the Tigrayans are random. They are carefully choreographed, coordinated, and planned. When a federal government minister utters provocative words against Eritrea, you need to understand that he/she is ordered from above to do that. When a so-called Tigrayan Elite speaks something bad about Eritrea in a meeting, that person is assigned to do that as well. When a media personality or YouTuber throws ugly words about Eritrea, he/she is trying to increase awareness in his/her media and earn YouTube money. So, until they understand that their destructive activities will not lead them anywhere and that working for peaceful neighborhoods is the way to go, Eritreans should not be provoked at all. If we do, we will simply be falling victim to their sinister agendas.
Victory to the Masses and Eternal Glory to Our Martyrs.